* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 76 75 74 74 72 70 65 68 73 76 75 V (KT) LAND 80 77 76 75 74 74 72 70 65 68 73 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 75 74 73 73 73 71 68 65 62 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 19 20 17 11 20 26 38 32 23 39 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 4 3 2 0 2 5 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 326 333 338 347 346 312 305 280 275 262 285 239 253 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 28.8 29.2 28.5 28.1 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 162 163 163 160 160 148 154 144 139 114 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 156 156 154 147 144 130 135 125 123 102 102 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 50 51 56 62 63 70 70 63 55 48 40 42 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 15 18 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 4 2 -2 6 -1 -19 -22 -6 -1 29 72 200 MB DIV 6 20 17 -2 9 30 35 50 46 37 56 29 51 700-850 TADV 4 1 -4 1 11 6 6 3 0 -1 10 16 15 LAND (KM) 644 514 404 339 324 456 500 636 825 1016 1065 1107 864 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.1 22.6 23.8 25.3 27.0 28.6 30.4 32.9 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 59.6 60.9 62.2 63.4 64.6 66.4 67.9 68.6 68.4 67.6 66.2 64.3 62.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 10 9 8 8 10 13 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 49 57 75 74 74 55 41 32 31 20 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -15. -12. -7. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.5 59.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 514.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.8% 11.5% 10.7% 8.5% 9.8% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.7% 1.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.6% 4.7% 4.1% 3.3% 3.8% 2.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/20/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 5( 16) 5( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 76 75 74 74 72 70 65 68 73 76 75 18HR AGO 80 79 78 77 76 76 74 72 67 70 75 78 77 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 74 74 72 70 65 68 73 76 75 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 69 67 65 60 63 68 71 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT