* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/20/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 91 89 88 84 84 82 77 75 72 78 79 V (KT) LAND 90 92 91 89 88 84 84 82 77 75 72 78 79 V (KT) LGEM 90 94 96 95 93 91 89 87 82 74 67 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 21 21 18 12 17 19 35 36 34 29 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 -1 1 3 3 0 0 -1 3 -3 -11 SHEAR DIR 314 321 331 341 351 341 299 284 277 262 275 258 237 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.3 28.6 28.0 27.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 162 158 158 162 160 155 156 145 138 138 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 158 153 151 151 146 138 137 127 122 126 114 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 58 63 68 71 66 53 51 45 38 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 13 12 14 12 13 13 12 13 14 18 21 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 10 3 6 9 8 5 -31 -16 -29 7 41 200 MB DIV 31 9 29 16 2 25 31 45 33 32 39 73 54 700-850 TADV -3 2 1 -6 2 10 4 10 4 10 7 25 11 LAND (KM) 813 676 550 430 343 381 479 579 782 968 1073 1098 784 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.5 21.9 23.2 24.7 26.6 28.2 29.9 32.9 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.3 60.6 62.0 63.4 65.5 67.2 68.3 68.4 67.8 66.5 64.4 61.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 9 9 10 13 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 40 50 55 66 73 66 50 34 33 22 15 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -9. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -5. -6. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -1. -2. -6. -6. -8. -13. -15. -18. -12. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.1 58.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.61 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 606.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 20.4% 14.7% 11.2% 10.9% 10.6% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 8.9% 6.5% 5.6% 2.9% 4.5% 1.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 7.0% 7.4% 4.5% 0.6% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 12.2% 8.6% 5.8% 4.6% 5.9% 4.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/20/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 11( 31) 9( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 92 91 89 88 84 84 82 77 75 72 78 79 18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 85 81 81 79 74 72 69 75 76 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 83 79 79 77 72 70 67 73 74 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 75 75 73 68 66 63 69 70 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 67 67 65 60 58 55 61 62 IN 6HR 90 92 83 77 74 72 72 70 65 63 60 66 67 IN 12HR 90 92 91 82 76 72 72 70 65 63 60 66 67