* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 88 87 86 83 82 80 80 77 76 78 78 V (KT) LAND 85 88 88 87 86 83 82 80 80 77 76 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 85 90 92 92 92 89 86 84 82 79 74 69 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 20 20 19 17 10 18 24 36 32 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 1 6 4 3 0 1 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 309 314 321 333 338 351 306 296 278 278 278 273 221 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.3 28.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 162 162 158 159 164 156 156 155 142 142 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 160 159 153 151 152 140 136 136 126 127 116 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 48 50 52 56 60 68 75 70 63 55 48 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 14 15 16 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 14 8 1 13 23 20 19 1 9 34 95 200 MB DIV 39 26 21 34 25 16 25 24 62 36 76 71 89 700-850 TADV 1 -2 2 1 -1 14 6 6 2 13 11 17 14 LAND (KM) 907 828 687 539 408 319 431 519 643 808 1042 1008 1006 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.9 21.1 22.4 24.1 25.4 26.9 28.9 31.4 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.5 57.8 59.2 60.7 62.2 64.7 66.7 68.2 68.8 68.8 67.9 66.2 63.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 9 13 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 45 40 50 56 71 77 66 37 38 35 19 32 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -8. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -9. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.7 56.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 625.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 20.9% 14.9% 11.2% 10.8% 10.7% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 9.8% 7.3% 7.1% 3.1% 4.6% 2.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 6.7% 3.7% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 11.4% 8.5% 6.2% 4.7% 6.0% 4.7% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/20/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 10( 28) 9( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 3( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 88 87 86 83 82 80 80 77 76 78 78 18HR AGO 85 84 84 83 82 79 78 76 76 73 72 74 74 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 79 76 75 73 73 70 69 71 71 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 71 70 68 68 65 64 66 66 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 62 60 60 57 56 58 58 IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 68 67 65 65 62 61 63 63 IN 12HR 85 88 88 79 73 69 68 66 66 63 62 64 64