* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 81 81 80 79 79 78 75 76 74 80 V (KT) LAND 75 79 81 81 81 80 79 79 78 75 76 74 80 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 85 86 86 85 83 82 81 79 75 70 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 19 19 19 20 10 15 21 31 33 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 5 5 0 5 2 0 2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 311 309 316 319 326 343 330 296 278 273 260 276 243 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 158 162 162 158 165 160 156 154 147 138 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 158 155 159 158 152 155 147 140 135 129 123 126 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 9 9 7 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 46 45 48 50 54 64 70 72 70 59 54 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 13 16 17 22 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 8 10 14 9 18 4 6 -4 7 3 45 200 MB DIV 27 36 25 2 14 5 44 28 54 53 41 48 88 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 6 -1 5 10 3 8 9 14 16 26 LAND (KM) 947 909 823 671 525 328 344 426 548 696 876 968 1021 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.2 20.4 21.6 23.0 24.6 26.0 27.6 29.5 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 55.2 56.6 57.9 59.3 60.8 63.5 66.0 67.8 69.3 70.0 69.7 68.3 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 10 9 8 10 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 40 50 57 73 76 55 53 52 32 18 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. -2. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. 1. -1. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.2 55.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.49 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 601.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 22.2% 15.6% 11.8% 11.6% 11.4% 12.4% 13.3% Logistic: 6.2% 11.1% 8.9% 8.5% 3.2% 6.5% 3.4% 2.7% Bayesian: 6.5% 1.9% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 2.3% 0.1% Consensus: 8.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.8% 4.9% 6.5% 6.0% 5.4% DTOPS: 14.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/19/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 8( 20) 7( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 81 81 81 80 79 79 78 75 76 74 80 18HR AGO 75 74 76 76 76 75 74 74 73 70 71 69 75 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 71 70 69 69 68 65 66 64 70 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 64 63 63 62 59 60 58 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT