* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 68 70 70 71 73 72 74 72 73 74 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 68 70 70 71 73 72 74 72 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 69 71 74 75 75 77 77 76 72 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 17 17 18 17 7 20 23 32 32 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 2 3 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 313 319 311 320 325 326 347 288 285 272 274 270 278 SST (C) 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 154 158 159 160 159 161 163 158 156 151 144 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 152 156 157 159 155 154 152 143 138 132 126 115 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 50 50 60 69 75 71 61 57 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 14 14 12 13 12 11 14 14 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 14 10 11 0 11 21 8 9 -8 8 30 200 MB DIV -6 28 31 27 8 16 23 38 25 65 20 49 63 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 0 7 -5 6 3 6 11 16 10 15 LAND (KM) 988 926 885 830 675 385 290 393 467 620 807 967 941 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.6 20.9 22.3 23.8 25.3 27.0 28.7 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.9 55.1 56.4 57.8 59.3 62.3 64.9 67.2 68.9 69.8 69.9 69.2 67.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 15 13 12 10 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 37 47 48 40 49 75 79 71 49 55 45 26 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -5. -5. -3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 13. 12. 14. 12. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.4 53.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 23.0% 15.9% 13.3% 10.8% 12.7% 14.0% 15.9% Logistic: 7.0% 12.3% 12.3% 10.8% 3.0% 5.7% 3.3% 3.3% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.4% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% 1.7% 0.1% Consensus: 5.8% 11.9% 10.8% 8.1% 4.7% 6.9% 6.3% 6.4% DTOPS: 21.0% 16.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/19/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 66 68 70 70 71 73 72 74 72 73 74 18HR AGO 60 59 62 64 66 66 67 69 68 70 68 69 70 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 60 60 61 63 62 64 62 63 64 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 52 53 55 54 56 54 55 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT