* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 69 71 70 70 70 71 72 71 70 68 V (KT) LAND 60 64 66 69 71 70 70 70 71 72 71 70 68 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 72 75 77 75 74 75 76 75 70 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 14 14 19 20 20 12 17 20 35 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 296 312 321 317 320 335 334 317 293 275 265 262 270 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.2 29.4 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 150 155 154 159 160 163 162 155 158 150 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 148 154 152 156 155 153 149 139 139 130 126 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 47 47 49 48 50 56 69 75 74 67 55 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 14 14 12 12 10 10 12 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 33 23 17 10 6 9 8 4 7 15 8 15 8 200 MB DIV 3 5 30 36 36 12 16 31 34 65 36 38 61 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 1 2 1 -1 11 3 10 9 12 13 LAND (KM) 1059 970 899 855 793 482 278 356 417 568 759 941 960 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.9 19.1 20.3 21.7 23.1 24.8 26.6 28.2 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.6 54.0 55.3 56.7 58.2 61.2 64.1 66.4 68.2 69.5 70.3 69.8 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 11 10 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 38 48 47 40 58 74 77 54 54 57 28 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -7. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.7 52.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.55 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 471.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 26.7% 16.6% 13.2% 10.8% 12.7% 14.9% 17.2% Logistic: 11.6% 18.1% 19.4% 14.2% 3.1% 6.2% 4.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 6.2% 6.6% 11.0% 0.5% 0.7% 4.4% 5.0% 0.1% Consensus: 8.8% 17.1% 15.7% 9.3% 4.9% 7.8% 7.9% 6.8% DTOPS: 19.0% 18.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/19/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 66 69 71 70 70 70 71 72 71 70 68 18HR AGO 60 59 61 64 66 65 65 65 66 67 66 65 63 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 61 60 60 60 61 62 61 60 58 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 51 51 51 52 53 52 51 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT