* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 63 66 68 71 71 69 71 69 69 67 69 V (KT) LAND 55 60 63 66 68 71 71 69 71 69 69 67 69 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 68 71 76 77 76 75 77 76 72 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 17 16 15 20 18 18 13 23 32 35 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 0 1 2 2 -3 2 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 304 300 314 328 331 333 328 331 288 285 256 264 263 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 145 150 155 159 155 163 163 161 157 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 143 149 155 158 150 155 154 148 139 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 47 48 48 50 51 56 65 72 78 69 57 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 13 13 13 13 10 11 11 13 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 37 29 18 10 8 5 6 -2 18 19 25 -3 3 200 MB DIV 30 5 11 31 30 2 33 16 35 54 71 2 82 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 0 0 4 -7 9 3 10 3 12 11 LAND (KM) 1099 1064 974 895 843 612 333 266 358 491 714 905 971 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.4 19.7 20.8 22.2 24.1 26.2 27.9 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.6 53.9 55.3 56.8 59.9 62.9 65.3 67.7 69.5 70.4 70.1 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 16 14 13 13 12 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 37 48 47 52 64 85 70 64 55 28 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -7. -8. -6. -6. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 16. 14. 16. 14. 14. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.2 51.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.58 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 41.7% 27.7% 17.4% 13.5% 23.2% 17.4% 19.2% Logistic: 14.4% 28.0% 33.6% 22.0% 4.2% 10.4% 4.3% 4.3% Bayesian: 4.6% 31.6% 14.7% 0.6% 0.6% 8.3% 9.6% 0.4% Consensus: 10.7% 33.8% 25.3% 13.4% 6.1% 14.0% 10.4% 8.0% DTOPS: 18.0% 34.0% 19.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/19/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 2( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 63 66 68 71 71 69 71 69 69 67 69 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 62 65 65 63 65 63 63 61 63 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 56 59 59 57 59 57 57 55 57 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 50 50 48 50 48 48 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT