* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 62 66 70 73 73 72 69 67 65 65 66 V (KT) LAND 50 57 62 66 70 73 73 72 69 67 65 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 68 72 79 80 79 78 78 80 81 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 15 20 18 20 21 20 13 19 21 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -4 -3 0 1 1 0 1 -1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 295 284 288 305 319 333 342 340 347 297 286 270 273 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 145 150 154 159 160 163 162 160 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 146 144 148 152 156 154 154 150 144 136 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 45 49 55 58 67 73 76 69 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 14 15 14 13 12 10 10 11 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 18 11 9 6 7 15 14 39 41 27 42 200 MB DIV 20 29 -10 2 19 31 19 12 31 36 66 36 45 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 1 0 1 6 -2 4 5 7 11 13 LAND (KM) 1106 1110 1074 981 907 805 468 246 278 343 487 657 823 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.8 18.9 20.0 21.0 22.5 24.1 25.7 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.2 52.5 53.9 55.3 58.1 61.3 64.2 66.6 68.5 69.9 70.6 70.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 30 37 47 39 58 71 80 60 77 48 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 23. 22. 19. 17. 15. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 49.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 48.8% 34.8% 22.4% 14.4% 26.1% 30.0% 20.0% Logistic: 35.8% 49.1% 58.3% 44.3% 10.5% 15.7% 5.3% 3.5% Bayesian: 19.2% 37.3% 38.9% 3.4% 3.2% 11.5% 12.3% 0.2% Consensus: 25.5% 45.0% 44.0% 23.4% 9.4% 17.8% 15.9% 7.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/18/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 4( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 4( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 62 66 70 73 73 72 69 67 65 65 66 18HR AGO 50 49 54 58 62 65 65 64 61 59 57 57 58 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 57 57 56 53 51 49 49 50 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 47 47 46 43 41 39 39 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT