* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 57 61 64 69 70 71 69 68 67 68 65 V (KT) LAND 45 52 57 61 64 69 70 71 69 68 67 68 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 63 67 75 79 78 76 77 80 79 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 13 19 15 21 18 16 13 19 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -6 -5 -2 1 1 0 0 -2 1 5 1 SHEAR DIR 16 313 296 291 311 330 341 344 334 282 280 257 257 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 146 146 155 159 155 165 162 160 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 144 145 145 154 158 152 159 151 144 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 49 47 46 45 53 56 66 71 73 63 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 14 14 13 10 11 11 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 32 19 15 12 9 11 -2 18 18 14 -10 200 MB DIV 29 19 28 -1 4 33 13 25 4 34 38 65 17 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 0 -5 6 0 -2 1 5 1 15 LAND (KM) 1131 1117 1112 1095 998 873 633 328 256 332 424 571 736 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.4 18.4 19.6 20.8 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.6 50.8 52.2 53.7 56.6 59.7 62.9 65.8 68.0 69.5 70.3 70.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 15 15 15 16 15 14 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 32 27 29 36 45 51 64 84 68 60 66 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 19. 24. 25. 26. 24. 23. 22. 23. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 48.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 15.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.1% 53.1% 38.7% 25.1% 14.7% 26.8% 30.9% 23.0% Logistic: 36.6% 48.9% 53.6% 30.8% 6.7% 21.2% 10.0% 7.1% Bayesian: 29.3% 22.9% 47.4% 2.5% 1.7% 19.3% 10.2% 0.6% Consensus: 29.7% 41.6% 46.6% 19.5% 7.7% 22.4% 17.0% 10.3% DTOPS: 8.0% 11.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/18/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 52 57 61 64 69 70 71 69 68 67 68 65 18HR AGO 45 44 49 53 56 61 62 63 61 60 59 60 57 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 53 54 55 53 52 51 52 49 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 43 44 45 43 42 41 42 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT