* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 47 50 55 60 62 63 61 63 64 64 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 47 50 55 60 62 63 61 63 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 53 58 60 60 59 62 65 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 9 13 18 20 24 22 12 17 16 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -6 -5 -1 0 0 -3 1 -1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 17 15 313 287 296 319 332 339 339 337 306 279 246 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.7 29.7 29.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 142 144 152 157 157 157 164 164 166 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 136 138 142 151 156 155 151 154 152 154 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 51 48 49 49 49 51 59 58 66 70 70 61 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 27 31 11 4 10 12 9 -8 13 25 11 200 MB DIV 21 19 18 32 12 24 24 20 11 24 51 64 28 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -2 2 -1 2 5 8 4 LAND (KM) 1149 1143 1144 1135 1142 968 864 552 313 289 323 410 644 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.8 17.8 18.9 20.2 21.1 22.0 23.4 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.3 49.3 50.4 51.6 54.5 57.5 60.5 63.5 66.0 68.0 69.8 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 14 15 15 15 14 11 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 34 29 29 44 41 56 73 88 69 66 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 20. 25. 27. 28. 26. 28. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.9 47.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 38.0% 26.0% 13.5% 11.3% 12.9% 16.6% 20.5% Logistic: 25.9% 48.0% 48.3% 27.7% 8.5% 20.8% 13.2% 7.3% Bayesian: 8.1% 22.1% 35.3% 1.6% 1.1% 16.5% 33.3% 0.6% Consensus: 14.7% 36.0% 36.5% 14.3% 7.0% 16.7% 21.0% 9.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/18/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 47 50 55 60 62 63 61 63 64 64 18HR AGO 35 34 39 42 45 50 55 57 58 56 58 59 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 42 47 49 50 48 50 51 51 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 38 40 41 39 41 42 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT