* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102019 09/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 50 55 60 61 62 61 64 68 72 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 50 55 60 61 62 61 64 68 72 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 53 58 61 60 59 61 66 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 4 3 14 20 27 23 19 9 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 -3 -1 -3 0 -2 0 -3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 22 23 20 1 298 308 322 335 342 355 336 317 244 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 141 140 142 145 155 157 155 162 167 167 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 138 137 140 143 154 156 151 156 158 156 149 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 50 52 49 53 57 64 71 74 69 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 25 23 26 18 19 22 11 11 24 36 58 200 MB DIV 15 20 15 18 30 -2 27 -8 28 21 61 46 52 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -9 -3 -4 -7 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1174 1159 1155 1146 1141 1061 921 718 405 236 282 323 500 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.2 17.3 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.6 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.1 48.0 49.1 50.3 52.9 55.7 58.9 62.0 64.8 67.4 69.7 71.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 15 14 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 46 48 36 29 33 47 48 66 82 77 59 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 20. 25. 26. 27. 26. 29. 33. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.5 46.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 TEN 09/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 33.7% 21.9% 13.0% 10.8% 12.9% 17.0% 21.2% Logistic: 19.0% 43.7% 43.3% 23.9% 7.6% 20.2% 12.2% 7.7% Bayesian: 3.9% 11.9% 27.5% 0.8% 0.5% 14.4% 35.2% 1.6% Consensus: 10.4% 29.8% 30.9% 12.6% 6.3% 15.8% 21.5% 10.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 TEN 09/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 TEN 09/18/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 47 50 55 60 61 62 61 64 68 72 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 46 51 56 57 58 57 60 64 68 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 39 44 49 50 51 50 53 57 61 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 38 39 40 39 42 46 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT