* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102019 09/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 48 54 61 61 63 63 66 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 48 54 61 61 63 63 66 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 35 37 41 46 51 53 55 56 60 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 5 5 8 17 20 19 20 13 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 0 -3 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 30 7 13 358 336 304 319 333 341 344 5 323 270 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 142 144 141 140 144 150 157 159 155 165 164 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 138 140 137 137 141 150 157 156 148 156 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 49 49 51 51 55 58 68 72 73 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 11 10 10 7 8 7 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 17 22 16 17 14 14 24 4 6 26 41 200 MB DIV 8 13 14 10 12 9 14 11 22 19 44 44 42 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -5 2 -5 -1 0 6 LAND (KM) 1217 1198 1185 1174 1173 1144 984 859 517 267 246 314 354 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.7 17.7 18.5 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.1 46.9 47.9 48.9 51.5 54.2 57.4 60.8 63.5 65.7 67.8 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 15 13 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 34 42 46 38 29 42 42 58 65 88 73 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 24. 31. 31. 33. 33. 36. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 45.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 TEN 09/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 22.3% 15.5% 11.7% 9.3% 12.0% 15.2% 21.6% Logistic: 11.9% 33.6% 28.2% 15.3% 6.5% 19.2% 13.8% 7.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 14.1% 10.2% 0.3% 0.2% 6.6% 15.5% 1.3% Consensus: 6.6% 23.3% 18.0% 9.1% 5.3% 12.6% 14.8% 10.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 TEN 09/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 TEN 09/17/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 43 48 54 61 61 63 63 66 71 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 45 51 58 58 60 60 63 68 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 39 45 52 52 54 54 57 62 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 35 42 42 44 44 47 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT