* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102019 09/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 50 58 66 70 70 70 72 74 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 50 58 66 70 70 70 72 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 46 53 62 69 72 73 74 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 11 8 4 8 10 15 18 19 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 0 0 -5 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 33 19 16 20 339 315 320 343 359 358 353 314 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.6 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 144 143 142 140 147 156 155 160 157 167 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 140 139 138 138 146 155 151 158 153 161 160 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 53 53 50 49 48 49 49 51 58 65 65 72 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 16 11 15 15 16 11 8 1 -20 -14 -17 200 MB DIV 6 13 23 22 1 23 0 8 1 18 2 18 18 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 0 0 0 3 -6 -2 -2 -7 -3 4 LAND (KM) 1222 1192 1161 1141 1130 1103 1037 885 786 475 193 200 196 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.3 20.3 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.6 45.5 46.4 47.3 48.1 50.2 52.9 55.6 58.3 61.2 64.2 67.0 69.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 12 14 14 13 15 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 38 48 50 26 33 52 42 59 63 80 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 36. 40. 40. 40. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 44.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 TEN 09/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 27.1% 16.7% 12.4% 9.8% 12.5% 16.9% 33.7% Logistic: 18.8% 37.6% 35.4% 20.1% 7.2% 26.4% 12.3% 8.4% Bayesian: 5.0% 30.7% 27.9% 1.1% 0.5% 24.3% 18.7% 3.5% Consensus: 10.5% 31.8% 26.7% 11.2% 5.9% 21.1% 16.0% 15.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 TEN 09/17/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 TEN 09/17/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 43 50 58 66 70 70 70 72 74 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 46 54 62 66 66 66 68 70 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 48 56 60 60 60 62 64 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 39 47 51 51 51 53 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT