* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/19/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 28 31 32 33 33 33 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 28 31 32 33 33 33 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 36 30 26 20 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 261 262 257 257 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 104 105 106 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 89 89 90 92 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.6 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 29 29 29 27 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -13 1 -9 -17 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -19 -24 -32 -26 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1397 1418 1439 1484 1530 1658 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.2 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.3 30.0 31.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -6. -11. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.6 27.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/19/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.64 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.32 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 6.5% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/19/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 28 31 32 33 33 33 33 32 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 27 30 31 32 32 32 32 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 27 28 29 29 29 29 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 20 21 22 22 22 22 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT