* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/17/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 37 38 35 31 28 25 22 19 17 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 37 38 35 31 28 25 22 19 17 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 36 34 36 34 33 33 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 275 271 269 267 267 264 265 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.9 24.9 25.1 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 107 105 103 103 103 104 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 94 91 89 87 88 89 90 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.7 -56.8 -56.8 -56.9 -56.7 -55.8 -55.0 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 24 27 29 30 30 30 28 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -102 -70 -42 -38 -44 -32 -26 -15 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -1 -14 -3 1 -21 -23 -30 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -3 -10 -9 -4 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1709 1601 1493 1437 1382 1342 1391 1482 1583 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.2 33.9 33.5 33.0 32.5 31.3 30.1 29.4 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.5 28.4 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.8 28.0 29.4 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 6 6 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -8. -13. -20. -26. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.2 29.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/17/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/17/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 36 37 38 35 31 28 25 22 19 17 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 36 33 29 26 23 20 17 15 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 30 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT