* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/16/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 35 37 37 34 32 29 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 35 37 37 34 32 29 25 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 25 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 38 37 34 34 33 34 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 261 273 270 265 266 263 266 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 114 112 109 104 104 105 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 103 98 95 92 88 89 92 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.1 -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 -57.0 -56.9 -55.9 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 26 24 26 27 29 29 27 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -83 -90 -92 -73 -54 -47 -43 -36 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 4 0 0 -8 -27 -8 -29 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -6 -5 -9 -9 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2046 1910 1777 1669 1560 1417 1404 1466 1560 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.1 33.7 32.7 31.7 30.6 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.4 31.8 30.2 29.1 28.0 26.9 27.3 28.6 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 8 5 6 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. -8. -15. -22. -29. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.4 33.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 33 35 37 37 34 32 29 25 23 21 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 36 36 33 31 28 24 22 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 31 31 28 26 23 19 17 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT