* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 37 39 39 36 33 31 27 25 23 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 37 39 39 36 33 31 27 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 29 29 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 38 36 37 37 32 32 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 234 238 245 263 273 275 273 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 123 119 112 107 103 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 110 107 103 96 91 88 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.9 -56.2 -56.8 -57.0 -57.1 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 31 31 29 26 28 31 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -25 -56 -78 -89 -81 -50 -43 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -9 -4 1 0 6 -14 -15 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -5 -8 -6 -10 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1923 1971 2027 2085 1949 1682 1468 1344 1284 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.8 34.3 34.5 34.7 34.3 33.2 31.9 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.8 37.1 35.5 33.8 32.1 29.1 27.2 26.5 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 14 13 11 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -9. -17. -24. -30. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.3 38.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 37 39 39 36 33 31 27 25 23 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 38 38 35 32 30 26 24 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 34 34 31 28 26 22 20 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 28 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT