* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 44 43 40 36 33 30 28 27 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 45 44 43 40 36 33 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 38 37 36 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 33 35 36 40 34 34 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -5 -4 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 212 215 215 217 226 243 257 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.2 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 127 128 129 127 124 117 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 106 108 110 110 107 101 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -56.0 -56.4 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 40 42 41 37 34 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 135 134 120 109 67 -33 -85 -98 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 14 20 16 28 -16 -2 -4 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 0 0 -5 -17 -18 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1848 1858 1868 1850 1836 1822 1874 2028 1848 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.6 31.7 32.2 32.7 34.0 35.4 36.1 36.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 43.8 43.3 42.5 41.7 39.5 36.5 33.3 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 10 13 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 8 7 4 1 1 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -10. -18. -25. -32. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.5 44.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 45 44 43 40 36 33 30 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 40 39 36 32 29 26 24 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 34 33 30 26 23 20 18 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 26 25 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT