* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 43 45 43 40 35 34 32 31 31 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 43 45 43 40 35 34 32 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 39 38 37 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 30 29 33 34 35 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 211 214 221 221 226 231 241 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 125 126 126 128 128 125 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 102 103 104 107 108 107 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.9 -56.2 -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 41 43 45 41 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 118 129 131 84 24 -29 -74 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 18 17 12 6 -8 -10 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -6 -4 -1 2 1 -7 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1731 1774 1817 1836 1856 1793 1753 1745 1790 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.1 31.7 31.7 31.6 32.6 33.7 35.1 36.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.8 44.7 44.7 44.3 43.9 42.9 41.4 39.1 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 8 10 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 4 6 5 2 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -8. -15. -22. -28. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 8. 5. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.5 44.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.36 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 8.2% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 43 45 43 40 35 34 32 31 31 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 40 42 40 37 32 31 29 28 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 36 34 31 26 25 23 22 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 26 23 18 17 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT