* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 39 41 44 44 43 40 40 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 39 41 44 44 43 40 40 39 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 35 38 39 38 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 27 26 26 28 36 34 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -3 -1 -4 1 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 222 221 225 231 229 229 239 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 125 126 127 128 127 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 103 102 103 104 108 108 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -55.6 -55.5 -55.8 -56.3 -56.6 -56.8 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -1.0 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 42 40 41 46 44 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 101 116 125 120 41 -1 -50 -79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 29 25 5 13 -13 -6 -15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -3 -5 1 4 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1687 1724 1762 1789 1817 1799 1737 1694 1681 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 32.7 32.2 32.0 31.8 32.3 33.3 34.7 36.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.3 44.5 44.8 44.6 44.4 43.5 42.6 40.7 38.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 5 9 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 5 4 4 6 7 3 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -13. -18. -24. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.1 44.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.35 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 7.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 37 39 41 44 44 43 40 40 39 39 39 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 43 43 42 39 39 38 38 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 38 38 37 34 34 33 33 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 30 29 26 26 25 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT