* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 40 43 44 42 40 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 40 43 44 42 40 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 34 34 37 39 39 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 24 25 27 34 35 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 232 231 229 225 230 229 237 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 126 125 127 129 126 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 102 103 101 106 109 108 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.9 -56.4 -56.5 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 44 43 43 47 47 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 68 95 117 132 93 0 -55 -90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 26 25 27 21 14 -10 -15 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -8 -4 -4 0 0 3 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1628 1664 1700 1736 1772 1785 1773 1733 1700 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 33.4 32.9 32.6 32.2 32.4 33.3 34.8 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.3 44.5 44.5 44.5 43.6 41.8 39.8 37.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 7 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 7 5 4 6 6 4 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. -6. -12. -17. -23. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.8 44.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.1% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 38 40 43 44 42 40 39 39 39 39 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 39 42 43 41 39 38 38 38 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 38 39 37 35 34 34 34 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 31 29 27 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT