* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 45 44 41 35 31 25 23 22 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 44 45 44 41 35 31 25 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 42 44 45 44 41 39 36 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 29 32 34 46 47 44 45 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 0 0 -2 -3 1 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 277 245 219 223 222 227 225 234 243 251 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.3 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 126 126 125 125 127 128 126 119 108 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 102 102 101 102 106 109 108 103 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.9 -56.0 -55.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 7 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 43 45 46 46 41 43 39 33 32 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 50 103 102 125 87 4 -51 -80 -77 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 21 23 39 19 20 -2 -5 -25 -6 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 -6 -11 -6 -4 -3 -1 -15 -24 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1655 1676 1699 1716 1733 1767 1812 1791 1768 1849 1951 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 33.7 33.3 33.1 32.8 32.5 32.5 33.5 35.1 36.6 37.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.2 43.5 43.7 43.9 43.8 42.7 41.0 38.7 35.4 31.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 3 6 11 14 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 4 1 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -10. -18. -26. -34. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -9. -15. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.0 42.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.65 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.30 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 11.1% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 44 45 44 41 35 31 25 23 22 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 43 42 39 33 29 23 21 20 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 39 38 35 29 25 19 17 16 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 31 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT