* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 45 46 49 48 44 38 30 29 29 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 45 46 49 48 44 38 30 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 44 47 50 51 50 47 43 DIS DIS Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 17 30 29 33 39 44 41 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 316 286 242 211 214 223 228 229 236 257 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.5 25.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 127 126 125 123 126 129 127 121 109 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 104 104 103 101 98 102 109 109 104 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.2 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -55.0 -55.4 -56.0 -56.0 -56.1 -55.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 9 8 7 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 41 43 46 48 46 43 46 42 35 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 14 13 13 12 9 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 9 4 49 100 121 143 59 -12 -53 -70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 25 16 19 35 12 15 12 -5 -11 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 -4 -2 -4 -11 -8 -1 1 -5 -28 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1648 1655 1664 1691 1719 1757 1723 1697 1713 1768 1850 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.0 33.6 33.3 32.9 32.6 32.9 33.7 34.9 36.4 38.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.4 43.0 43.6 43.8 44.0 43.8 43.9 42.6 40.0 36.9 33.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 0 3 10 14 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 5 1 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -5. -12. -20. -26. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 8. 4. -2. -10. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.3 42.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.8% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 44 45 46 49 48 44 38 30 29 29 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 43 44 47 46 42 36 28 27 27 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 39 42 41 37 31 23 22 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 35 34 30 24 16 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT