* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 45 47 50 53 52 46 41 37 36 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 45 47 50 53 52 46 41 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 40 41 45 49 52 52 51 50 49 48 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 15 14 20 40 31 37 35 38 35 32 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 -1 -3 1 -4 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 333 326 318 295 236 223 211 228 228 243 254 280 297 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.5 25.7 24.3 23.4 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 124 124 124 127 126 120 113 105 99 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 104 102 99 99 99 105 106 102 98 95 90 83 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -55.7 -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -55.7 -56.3 -55.9 -56.2 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 34 34 42 49 53 57 53 52 49 40 37 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 13 15 16 14 9 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 25 4 21 77 117 142 137 107 46 17 23 -43 200 MB DIV -34 6 19 17 32 38 19 43 22 -9 7 0 0 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 -2 -1 -6 -5 -8 -13 -9 -33 -14 -4 LAND (KM) 1662 1706 1731 1742 1747 1747 1716 1655 1565 1636 1917 1341 861 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 33.8 33.4 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.6 34.9 37.0 38.4 39.1 38.8 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.2 42.5 42.7 42.6 42.6 42.4 41.1 39.4 36.6 31.4 24.7 19.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 1 1 1 6 10 13 16 24 25 20 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -7. -13. -17. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 12. 6. 1. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.5 41.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.64 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.30 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 12.3% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 45 47 50 53 52 46 41 37 36 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 43 45 48 51 50 44 39 35 34 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 41 44 47 46 40 35 31 30 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 34 37 40 39 33 28 24 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT