* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 51 52 48 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 51 52 48 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 41 39 33 27 24 24 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 58 61 61 63 56 42 35 30 22 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 6 3 8 1 3 0 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 267 271 266 267 259 238 220 227 231 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.1 26.5 25.0 24.5 25.1 21.8 15.7 17.8 15.3 14.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 129 123 109 105 110 90 75 79 75 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 116 109 97 94 97 82 71 74 72 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.6 1.9 2.8 3.0 3.6 3.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 62 59 51 46 46 45 49 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 22 24 27 31 33 29 25 22 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 34 42 44 55 103 137 103 99 82 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 74 79 76 90 37 72 94 23 9 47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 17 33 35 49 -15 -67 -52 -29 -17 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 49 232 341 357 412 433 456 407 845 1422 966 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.7 37.9 38.9 39.8 41.2 42.7 44.7 47.1 49.8 52.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.4 73.2 71.0 68.5 65.9 60.6 55.0 48.7 41.6 33.5 24.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 22 22 22 22 24 26 29 31 31 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 15 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 21 CX,CY: 16/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -11. -22. -32. -38. -42. -50. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 11. 5. 0. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 11. 12. 8. -7. -21. -31. -43. -53. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.4 75.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 138.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/29/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 48 51 52 48 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 48 49 45 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 43 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 34 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT