* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 45 50 58 53 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 45 50 58 53 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 37 32 26 22 21 22 25 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 44 58 63 60 58 42 38 36 30 19 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 -1 9 6 3 3 1 -1 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 262 259 259 266 262 257 242 231 226 245 258 253 264 SST (C) 28.9 27.8 26.7 26.3 24.8 25.4 24.2 18.8 15.9 17.2 14.5 14.3 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 138 125 120 107 112 103 80 75 79 74 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 126 111 106 95 99 91 74 72 76 71 67 65 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -52.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.9 2.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 1.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 63 62 53 45 42 45 43 52 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 20 24 28 36 36 31 26 23 18 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 8 35 43 40 51 65 82 148 151 101 144 116 44 200 MB DIV 55 67 74 76 78 71 83 85 33 4 31 13 -12 700-850 TADV 27 20 16 38 29 -30 -27 -44 -18 -9 -9 -7 5 LAND (KM) 13 20 189 315 332 398 434 334 522 1087 1192 711 488 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 35.5 37.0 38.0 38.9 40.2 42.0 43.7 45.6 48.3 51.8 54.3 55.9 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 75.7 73.6 71.3 69.0 63.6 58.1 52.8 46.5 38.2 27.7 20.9 16.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 23 22 20 21 22 22 23 28 35 31 19 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 1 47 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 1. -7. -19. -30. -38. -43. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 9. 20. 22. 17. 11. 6. -2. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 23. 18. 4. -11. -23. -35. -45. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.0 77.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/29/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 45 50 58 53 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 42 47 55 50 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 41 49 44 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 38 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT