* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 40 45 50 61 59 47 31 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 40 45 50 61 59 47 31 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 39 40 35 28 23 21 20 21 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 37 41 52 57 59 47 42 39 42 37 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 4 2 6 5 0 -1 1 -1 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 262 258 262 267 252 251 245 234 242 264 283 300 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.0 27.3 26.8 24.8 25.6 23.2 16.2 17.5 15.8 14.8 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 140 132 126 107 114 97 75 79 76 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 125 117 111 95 100 87 71 74 72 70 70 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -52.5 -53.4 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 63 63 57 49 48 47 40 39 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 18 21 24 27 38 39 34 27 21 16 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -2 12 43 35 42 70 89 130 146 113 68 39 27 200 MB DIV 32 70 70 69 98 71 58 37 44 8 -1 -21 -25 700-850 TADV 40 31 17 22 40 -37 -41 -11 -26 5 9 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 29 27 22 175 309 398 455 505 344 725 1316 1156 621 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 34.0 35.1 36.3 37.5 39.3 40.6 42.3 44.3 46.7 49.2 51.5 53.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 77.6 76.0 73.8 71.7 66.9 61.6 56.2 50.3 43.3 35.0 27.1 19.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 18 19 21 21 21 22 23 25 29 29 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 4 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -7. -18. -28. -37. -46. -53. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 10. 22. 26. 21. 13. 5. -3. -8. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 15. 26. 24. 12. -4. -19. -33. -44. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.8 79.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/29/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 40 45 50 61 59 47 31 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 48 59 57 45 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 41 52 50 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 41 39 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT