* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 40 44 50 56 63 55 40 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 40 43 49 55 62 53 38 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 42 41 35 28 25 25 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 34 39 42 52 53 57 37 35 34 32 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 3 1 10 2 -2 3 1 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 270 265 260 257 259 258 250 252 237 227 248 271 293 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 28.8 27.9 27.1 24.8 24.3 24.0 19.4 15.5 17.3 14.9 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 151 139 129 107 104 101 81 74 78 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 132 123 114 96 92 89 75 71 73 71 70 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -52.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.7 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.6 1.8 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 68 65 62 52 52 48 44 37 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 19 22 25 30 40 38 31 25 20 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 16 37 29 50 74 80 157 136 102 89 94 200 MB DIV 42 48 87 89 76 100 50 55 96 43 -2 -22 -17 700-850 TADV 22 32 27 26 21 -7 -50 -30 -20 -13 9 13 4 LAND (KM) 52 53 18 27 178 327 345 398 344 451 909 1464 959 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 33.3 34.2 35.4 36.6 38.9 40.6 42.1 43.6 45.5 48.1 50.3 52.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 78.6 77.5 75.6 73.8 69.2 64.0 58.7 53.5 47.5 40.6 32.9 24.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 16 19 20 22 22 21 22 25 27 28 28 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 9 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -6. -17. -27. -34. -42. -48. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 26. 25. 16. 8. 0. -6. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 15. 21. 28. 20. 5. -10. -25. -36. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.3 79.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.73 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 108.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/29/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 40 43 49 55 62 53 38 24 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 47 53 60 51 36 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 40 46 53 44 29 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 37 44 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT