* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 41 45 51 59 56 46 32 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 35 42 48 56 53 43 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 36 38 41 38 32 27 25 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 39 40 43 45 57 52 41 37 35 39 37 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 2 1 0 2 6 3 0 2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 280 266 264 258 250 261 247 250 242 231 237 259 284 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.3 27.7 26.7 24.3 24.0 20.0 15.1 15.4 16.2 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 158 157 144 135 124 104 102 83 72 74 77 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 135 137 126 118 110 93 91 76 69 70 73 73 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 2 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 68 70 70 67 63 57 51 53 52 44 40 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 18 20 26 37 40 37 33 26 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR -3 9 -3 17 27 30 47 39 104 116 91 83 92 200 MB DIV 60 52 38 68 76 90 105 10 77 82 19 -12 -20 700-850 TADV 27 24 33 21 11 28 -17 -32 -24 -31 -8 1 -2 LAND (KM) 64 28 15 0 63 315 414 371 355 259 575 1163 1139 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.8 33.7 34.8 35.8 37.7 39.8 41.8 43.6 45.4 47.1 49.1 51.3 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 79.4 78.5 76.8 75.2 71.5 66.1 60.6 55.4 50.3 45.2 37.1 26.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 15 17 17 20 23 22 21 20 24 32 34 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 12 2 49 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -7. -18. -27. -35. -44. -51. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 21. 26. 23. 16. 6. -2. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 24. 21. 11. -3. -20. -36. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.8 80.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 42.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/28/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 35 42 48 56 53 43 29 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 32 39 45 53 50 40 26 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 28 35 41 49 46 36 22 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 32 38 46 43 33 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT