* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 39 47 52 53 51 36 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 39 46 51 52 50 35 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 32 29 25 22 22 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 29 39 38 38 55 56 59 45 34 37 34 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 2 2 2 6 3 -3 2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 301 276 266 266 259 253 251 251 239 238 236 252 275 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.6 27.0 23.9 23.5 24.2 19.6 15.2 17.5 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 155 158 148 128 101 98 103 82 74 79 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 130 133 137 129 113 91 87 90 75 70 74 72 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.6 1.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 64 69 69 69 65 61 51 48 47 46 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 14 17 22 29 36 40 34 27 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -6 10 -2 16 32 37 57 64 103 115 95 91 200 MB DIV 38 49 44 34 95 60 104 70 71 67 27 -28 -14 700-850 TADV 17 16 26 26 26 20 -5 -26 -34 -14 -11 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 87 82 38 43 22 197 291 307 404 355 411 904 1521 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.8 32.5 33.5 34.4 36.7 39.3 41.0 42.0 43.5 45.6 47.8 50.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 80.1 79.7 78.4 77.2 73.6 69.0 63.9 58.8 53.5 48.0 40.7 32.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 11 14 16 20 22 21 20 21 25 29 30 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 21 15 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -4. -16. -28. -37. -46. -53. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 17. 26. 32. 23. 14. 5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 17. 22. 23. 21. 6. -9. -24. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.0 80.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 98.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/28/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 39 46 51 52 50 35 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 37 44 49 50 48 33 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 39 44 45 43 28 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 36 37 35 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT