* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 39 42 45 51 54 52 46 31 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 39 42 45 49 52 50 44 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 35 35 36 37 39 39 35 30 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 36 31 28 35 37 53 48 53 40 36 37 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 0 1 2 1 4 0 11 3 -2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 308 298 293 269 269 266 255 261 254 243 246 248 271 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.6 26.4 25.0 26.3 25.6 20.0 15.1 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 147 151 148 121 109 121 114 83 73 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 120 123 129 130 106 97 107 101 77 70 72 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 61 64 66 70 71 67 64 57 54 49 49 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 15 22 30 35 37 32 25 19 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -22 -18 -3 6 12 31 51 67 78 100 95 55 200 MB DIV 37 27 49 40 30 82 65 124 33 77 54 44 -25 700-850 TADV 7 9 18 14 26 32 27 0 -26 -22 -18 -13 13 LAND (KM) 64 51 30 50 47 16 154 345 450 509 388 496 920 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.8 31.1 31.7 32.2 34.4 36.9 38.5 39.6 41.1 43.2 45.1 47.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.9 81.1 80.6 80.1 77.3 74.1 69.6 64.0 58.4 53.2 47.1 40.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 7 11 17 18 21 22 22 23 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 29 27 22 12 23 0 19 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 18. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -3. -14. -25. -34. -43. -50. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 9. 19. 26. 27. 19. 10. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 21. 24. 22. 16. 1. -16. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.4 80.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 78.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 39 42 45 49 52 50 44 28 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 40 44 47 45 39 23 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 34 38 41 39 33 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 30 33 31 25 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT