* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 50 47 43 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 50 47 43 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 51 49 45 40 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 32 39 47 51 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 13 17 14 14 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 200 198 204 201 194 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.9 18.2 15.0 12.8 12.4 12.8 10.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 83 77 75 74 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 79 75 73 71 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -52.8 -51.4 -50.1 -48.7 -49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 46 48 45 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 24 22 23 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 121 154 147 128 128 103 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 26 44 35 30 7 -134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -31 -44 -25 -45 -93 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 891 1061 1315 1403 1100 815 762 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.2 46.3 49.4 52.5 55.6 60.5 64.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 38.9 35.0 30.9 26.9 19.1 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 39 41 40 40 36 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 35 CX,CY: 22/ 27 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 2. -9. -21. -31. -41. -52. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -1. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -7. -14. -31. -46. -60. -72. -84. -94.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 43.2 42.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 86.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 253.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/16/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 50 47 43 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 45 41 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 39 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT