* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 55 51 48 44 40 35 30 25 20 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 55 51 48 44 40 35 30 25 20 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 50 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 28 26 31 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 10 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 225 221 207 195 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.3 24.1 22.0 19.0 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 106 95 85 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 111 99 90 81 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.0 -0.7 -0.9 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 48 45 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 24 27 30 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 31 89 137 146 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 84 72 62 56 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -4 5 -8 -37 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1163 990 873 881 1037 1419 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.3 38.3 40.2 43.0 45.7 52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.5 49.3 47.0 43.3 39.5 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 26 33 39 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 18 CX,CY: 9/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. -4. -10. -16. -22. -28. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 6. 3. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.3 51.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.48 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.23 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 299.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 11.6% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/15/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 52 55 51 48 44 40 35 30 25 20 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 52 48 45 41 37 32 27 22 17 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 42 39 35 31 26 21 16 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 34 31 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT