* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 52 55 56 48 43 37 31 25 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 52 55 56 48 43 37 31 25 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 52 50 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 15 21 26 29 42 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 -1 0 7 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 234 222 218 205 198 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.6 23.7 21.8 15.3 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 125 103 94 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 115 97 89 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -53.4 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 53 50 46 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 23 27 29 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 4 44 105 138 130 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 58 79 76 66 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 2 -1 4 -18 -40 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1311 1135 978 841 840 1245 1202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.9 36.6 38.2 40.6 43.0 48.9 54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.0 51.5 50.0 46.9 43.8 36.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 27 34 37 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 16 CX,CY: 4/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -5. -13. -19. -26. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 3. -2. -8. -14. -20. -25. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.9 53.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.65 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.28 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 290.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 12.6% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/15/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 49 52 55 56 48 43 37 31 25 20 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 53 54 46 41 35 29 23 18 DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 48 40 35 29 23 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 39 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT