* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 54 60 60 59 57 54 51 48 45 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 54 60 60 59 57 54 51 48 45 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 52 56 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 20 15 21 23 26 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 0 0 -2 2 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 244 217 220 210 194 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.5 24.3 19.0 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 128 124 107 85 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 109 114 113 100 81 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 56 49 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 23 24 30 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 9 5 31 92 176 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 27 60 78 67 46 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 7 4 -9 -4 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1475 1333 1182 1003 875 1018 1358 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.7 36.1 38.1 40.0 45.6 52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.6 52.7 51.8 49.6 47.4 39.8 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 21 26 33 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 12 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 12 CX,CY: 2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -6. -11. -15. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. 6. 3. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.3 53.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.27 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.51 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.37 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.32 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 58.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 271.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 11.5% 7.1% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.2% 2.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/15/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 51 54 60 60 59 57 54 51 48 45 18HR AGO 45 44 46 49 52 58 58 57 55 52 49 46 43 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 53 53 52 50 47 44 41 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 44 44 43 41 38 35 32 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT