* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 50 56 59 59 57 54 50 47 43 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 50 56 59 59 57 54 50 47 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 47 53 55 53 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 26 24 18 15 20 22 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -5 1 0 1 9 18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 205 233 248 229 221 187 208 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.8 24.1 19.3 13.7 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 121 124 125 126 105 85 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 106 108 109 112 97 81 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -52.7 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 57 61 60 54 49 57 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 23 26 29 34 37 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 22 4 -8 77 191 171 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 57 11 22 58 74 52 31 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 12 10 13 4 3 -14 24 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1733 1594 1444 1293 1148 888 1022 1506 948 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 32.4 33.7 35.1 36.5 40.3 45.3 51.2 57.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.0 52.9 52.8 51.8 50.9 46.5 39.9 32.1 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 16 21 30 37 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 13 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 18 CX,CY: -1/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 14. 14. 12. 9. 5. 2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.0 53.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.71 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.33 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 56.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 231.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.1% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/14/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 50 56 59 59 57 54 50 47 43 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 49 55 58 58 56 53 49 46 42 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 45 51 54 54 52 49 45 42 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 44 47 47 45 42 38 35 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT