* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 53 58 62 64 55 52 48 46 42 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 53 58 62 64 55 52 48 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 49 52 57 56 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 27 24 23 17 18 23 31 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -4 -1 -2 4 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 206 203 230 244 233 205 205 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.4 22.8 16.7 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 130 123 121 125 123 98 79 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 115 108 106 111 113 91 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.6 -54.7 -53.4 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 6 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 55 56 57 56 46 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 20 22 24 28 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 30 35 25 11 10 127 157 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 47 55 17 20 64 61 39 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 13 7 12 9 6 0 0 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1735 1818 1705 1578 1434 1088 891 1166 1332 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.9 31.2 32.5 33.8 37.3 42.0 47.2 52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.9 53.0 53.2 52.8 52.4 49.4 44.0 37.3 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 17 26 33 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 11 8 9 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 19. 10. 7. 3. 1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.6 52.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.16 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.67 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.36 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 79.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 268.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 14.4% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% Logistic: 0.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/14/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 53 58 62 64 55 52 48 46 42 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 50 55 59 61 52 49 45 43 39 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 50 54 56 47 44 40 38 34 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 42 46 48 39 36 32 30 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT