* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 51 53 56 61 70 72 68 54 37 28 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 51 53 56 61 70 72 68 54 37 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 48 49 54 59 58 53 44 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 29 28 24 25 20 21 17 29 40 33 32 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -1 -1 -5 -1 2 11 21 10 5 4 2 SHEAR DIR 217 220 205 199 223 216 219 220 225 201 187 177 165 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.6 26.9 26.6 26.9 25.4 20.4 13.9 12.7 12.9 12.0 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 133 125 121 126 115 89 76 71 70 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 118 110 107 113 107 85 73 69 68 68 67 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -53.4 -51.4 -49.3 -48.4 -48.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 1.3 3.0 2.5 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 53 55 55 57 53 57 62 57 63 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 21 22 22 22 24 30 34 37 34 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 38 40 34 18 73 184 167 184 202 161 84 200 MB DIV 58 60 78 67 11 37 65 75 52 57 60 -11 -86 700-850 TADV 20 23 15 8 11 11 15 54 55 -30 -85 -66 -37 LAND (KM) 1661 1717 1785 1715 1575 1282 968 979 1501 965 741 524 802 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.4 29.7 31.1 32.5 35.2 38.9 44.5 51.0 55.9 58.5 61.9 65.7 LONG(DEG W) 52.6 53.0 53.3 53.2 53.1 51.8 47.8 40.9 32.4 24.7 18.7 11.6 3.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 19 31 41 38 27 23 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 11 9 10 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 11. 17. 21. 16. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 16. 25. 27. 23. 9. -8. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.1 52.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.39 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.76 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.41 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 76.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 283.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.1% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/14/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 49 51 53 56 61 70 72 68 54 37 28 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 54 59 68 70 66 52 35 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 48 53 62 64 60 46 29 20 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 45 54 56 52 38 21 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT