* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 47 52 56 60 60 52 32 18 16 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 47 52 56 60 60 52 32 18 16 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 40 40 41 43 49 51 47 41 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 40 30 26 24 18 20 23 34 45 51 39 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 -3 -5 0 9 4 8 12 7 1 SHEAR DIR 211 216 217 202 192 243 222 235 197 203 206 200 190 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.8 27.0 26.9 22.6 17.6 13.2 12.7 12.9 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 139 129 123 126 128 97 80 73 72 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 124 114 108 111 115 90 77 71 70 69 67 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -53.3 -52.1 -50.2 -48.5 -48.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 57 56 55 55 55 56 56 52 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 22 21 20 22 22 22 17 15 21 850 MB ENV VOR 5 19 18 44 50 24 54 138 165 183 158 181 103 200 MB DIV 21 45 72 84 74 1 66 70 95 70 75 3 -42 700-850 TADV 14 19 22 18 7 13 17 38 -13 -123 -148 -71 -59 LAND (KM) 1622 1661 1712 1799 1653 1377 1049 804 1066 1443 963 702 647 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.6 28.8 30.2 31.5 34.3 37.4 41.7 46.9 51.9 56.5 60.5 64.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 53.0 53.4 53.6 53.8 53.4 50.9 45.8 38.7 31.4 24.5 16.9 9.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 16 24 33 35 33 29 27 24 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 15 10 10 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):341/ 14 CX,CY: -4/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -24. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. -5. -9. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 20. 12. -8. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.3 52.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 255.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/13/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 43 47 52 56 60 60 52 32 18 16 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 46 51 55 59 59 51 31 17 15 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 42 47 51 55 55 47 27 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 39 43 47 47 39 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT