* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 44 51 52 50 55 47 31 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 44 51 52 50 55 47 31 21 DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 40 40 41 43 48 46 40 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 36 38 29 27 24 18 26 36 49 61 49 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 4 3 0 -5 -2 -2 13 19 8 5 3 SHEAR DIR 223 211 220 224 209 210 228 228 233 227 203 204 213 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.7 26.7 27.0 25.9 21.5 15.6 12.5 13.1 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 148 144 134 122 128 118 92 77 73 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 133 128 119 108 114 108 85 74 70 68 66 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 -54.6 -53.9 -52.2 -51.4 -50.0 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 1.3 0.7 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 51 54 55 52 51 49 51 47 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 16 21 19 16 22 21 19 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 1 11 17 16 41 44 12 86 174 142 111 82 117 200 MB DIV 14 22 47 42 74 33 38 60 76 43 55 58 40 700-850 TADV 7 9 17 19 21 8 8 9 64 50 -100 -90 -8 LAND (KM) 1580 1595 1621 1672 1735 1584 1280 927 854 1242 1188 817 639 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.9 27.0 28.3 29.5 32.2 35.2 39.0 43.5 48.5 53.7 57.6 60.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.1 52.6 53.0 53.4 53.8 53.7 52.2 48.7 43.2 36.1 28.1 21.3 16.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 14 20 27 33 36 32 22 18 HEAT CONTENT 33 25 17 15 12 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -19. -29. -39. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 3. -1. 4. 3. 0. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 12. 10. 15. 7. -9. -19. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.8 52.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 36.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 270.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/13/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 42 44 51 52 50 55 47 31 21 DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 42 49 50 48 53 45 29 19 DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 46 47 45 50 42 26 16 DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 39 40 38 43 35 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT