* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 39 43 46 46 50 56 42 28 18 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 39 43 46 46 50 56 42 28 18 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 39 38 37 38 40 47 52 46 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 33 34 35 28 22 19 20 32 45 59 55 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 4 2 0 -5 0 0 12 10 7 5 SHEAR DIR 223 222 216 219 225 209 227 229 229 221 219 219 236 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 27.3 26.7 26.8 24.6 20.0 14.5 12.4 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 146 149 148 129 122 126 108 87 75 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 129 131 134 132 113 108 114 100 82 72 68 66 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.0 -52.6 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 50 50 56 55 53 54 51 37 36 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 15 14 13 16 17 16 19 28 25 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 15 15 18 32 25 16 107 111 57 50 78 200 MB DIV 34 8 36 33 29 56 15 64 60 81 54 37 32 700-850 TADV 11 7 11 12 18 11 9 10 14 37 -23 -71 -2 LAND (KM) 1583 1573 1573 1591 1620 1789 1571 1256 912 934 1399 1132 882 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.5 25.4 26.5 27.6 30.2 32.5 35.5 39.7 44.7 50.2 54.5 57.3 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0 53.5 53.8 53.2 51.0 47.2 41.4 33.8 27.4 22.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 12 14 22 29 36 33 24 19 HEAT CONTENT 31 37 28 19 13 9 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -24. -34. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -1. -1. -3. 0. 11. 6. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 16. 2. -12. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.5 51.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.56 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 271.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/13/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 39 43 46 46 50 56 42 28 18 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 38 42 45 45 49 55 41 27 17 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 39 42 42 46 52 38 24 DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 33 36 36 40 46 32 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT