* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 34 39 44 47 49 54 57 43 40 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 34 39 44 47 49 54 57 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 30 30 31 34 40 44 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 33 36 37 35 26 24 18 31 31 48 57 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 3 6 0 -5 -2 -3 9 13 11 2 SHEAR DIR 217 222 220 212 219 213 211 223 224 233 231 222 218 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 22.5 16.9 12.9 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 144 148 149 137 125 125 127 97 79 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 131 134 134 120 109 110 116 91 75 69 68 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -53.3 -50.8 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 50 49 52 53 51 53 53 54 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 18 20 20 19 24 30 28 34 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 11 15 21 41 47 34 68 163 135 148 165 200 MB DIV 72 46 29 43 32 64 34 41 64 71 85 59 61 700-850 TADV 19 15 10 11 10 16 4 8 20 62 68 -30 -33 LAND (KM) 1595 1574 1561 1558 1566 1677 1651 1428 1082 802 1094 1459 1089 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.9 24.8 25.9 26.9 29.3 31.3 33.8 37.1 41.8 47.5 52.2 55.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.2 51.8 52.3 53.0 53.6 54.4 54.5 53.5 50.9 45.7 38.2 31.7 26.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 11 12 16 25 35 35 27 23 HEAT CONTENT 26 35 35 24 17 14 3 10 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -24. -34. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. 4. 12. 8. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. -1. 4. 9. 12. 14. 19. 22. 8. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.0 51.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 230.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/13/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 34 34 39 44 47 49 54 57 43 40 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 38 43 46 48 53 56 42 39 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 36 41 44 46 51 54 40 37 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 30 35 38 40 45 48 34 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT