* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 37 44 44 45 44 45 40 31 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 37 44 44 45 44 45 40 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 30 29 29 29 31 35 39 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 31 35 36 36 29 19 15 18 24 27 42 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 5 2 1 0 -1 -4 0 -4 2 2 8 SHEAR DIR 214 216 220 218 210 214 198 242 212 227 209 233 235 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.2 27.0 27.0 25.2 17.9 13.8 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 143 146 147 145 127 125 128 113 81 74 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 130 131 132 129 112 108 114 105 77 71 69 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.1 1.9 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 52 49 49 55 56 57 61 63 62 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 17 17 18 21 20 18 16 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -1 4 13 33 57 34 11 44 138 99 144 200 MB DIV 76 64 41 26 39 37 53 25 87 57 95 92 75 700-850 TADV 19 16 12 8 13 17 7 5 14 27 26 27 -33 LAND (KM) 1647 1610 1585 1584 1593 1616 1657 1421 1211 855 845 1287 1227 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.5 26.4 28.4 31.1 33.5 35.8 39.8 45.5 50.7 55.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.5 51.2 51.9 52.4 52.9 54.3 55.0 54.5 52.7 48.4 42.2 35.4 28.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 13 13 13 20 32 35 32 28 HEAT CONTENT 22 29 36 28 20 17 8 10 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. -23. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 0. -3. -6. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 9. 9. 10. 9. 10. 5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.4 50.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 229.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/12/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 37 44 44 45 44 45 40 31 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 36 43 43 44 43 44 39 30 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 33 40 40 41 40 41 36 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 34 34 35 34 35 30 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT