* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 40 45 45 44 47 47 40 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 40 45 45 44 47 47 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 30 29 29 30 34 39 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 29 32 37 34 25 17 17 27 32 42 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 7 4 3 -3 0 -1 0 7 11 10 SHEAR DIR 233 208 210 221 221 214 205 227 224 212 212 235 232 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 27.7 27.0 27.1 27.0 22.6 17.3 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 142 146 149 134 124 127 129 96 79 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 126 128 131 134 118 107 110 116 89 75 71 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -52.3 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 53 52 49 53 58 57 55 50 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 20 21 20 18 22 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 8 3 8 29 49 47 46 47 152 164 159 200 MB DIV 50 80 75 47 25 23 71 14 60 57 69 65 58 700-850 TADV 17 15 13 16 10 9 10 5 1 10 16 43 38 LAND (KM) 1663 1650 1635 1599 1572 1564 1708 1579 1380 1092 757 867 1311 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 12 12 10 14 23 30 33 33 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 30 34 30 16 12 2 8 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -18. -24. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 0. -3. 1. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 10. 10. 9. 12. 12. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.4 50.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.48 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.90 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.58 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 14.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/12/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 36 40 45 45 44 47 47 40 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 35 39 44 44 43 46 46 39 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 32 36 41 41 40 43 43 36 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 30 35 35 34 37 37 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT