* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 48 44 40 36 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 38 32 31 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 37 32 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 56 64 70 59 42 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -12 -8 -11 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 213 214 214 212 182 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 21.8 25.1 8.9 11.4 11.9 6.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 92 111 68 68 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 84 97 67 66 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -48.2 -47.9 -47.9 -48.9 -50.3 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.6 2.4 1.9 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 61 62 58 53 55 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 20 19 17 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 37 42 59 49 28 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 96 43 41 58 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 21 46 59 31 -15 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -84 -240 -313 -271 -264 -457 -436 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.9 43.5 46.1 48.4 50.7 53.5 54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.1 73.6 72.2 71.6 71.1 70.3 68.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 28 25 23 19 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 35 CX,CY: 12/ 33 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -21. -24. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -14. -21. -26. -31. -36. -40. -45. -49. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -26. -33. -40. -47. -54. -62. -70. -79. -86. -92. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 40.9 75.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 38 32 31 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 48 47 46 46 46 46 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 49 49 49 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 44 44 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT