* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 77 76 70 55 45 40 33 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 62 48 39 33 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 66 49 39 33 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 31 36 47 54 66 36 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 2 4 -13 -4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 232 214 206 209 217 215 249 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.4 27.1 24.5 22.5 12.7 11.0 8.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 163 131 107 94 69 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 150 120 97 84 66 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.1 -49.3 -49.4 -49.2 -48.9 -50.1 -51.4 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 6 7 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 60 62 65 55 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 23 22 20 18 18 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -18 -4 29 28 28 55 28 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 66 101 96 112 31 48 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 30 2 28 32 77 1 11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 37 -41 -49 -34 -137 -254 -72 -339 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 34.8 36.7 39.3 41.9 46.7 50.4 53.2 55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.1 77.8 76.5 75.1 73.6 69.8 67.6 65.8 60.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 25 28 28 24 17 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 25 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 16 CX,CY: 5/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 3. -1. -8. -15. -22. -26. -29. -31. -34. -37. -38. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -26. -26. -25. -27. -29. -31. -33. -36. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. 1. -5. -20. -30. -35. -42. -48. -54. -61. -66. -71. -74. -78. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.8 79.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 5.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 62 48 39 33 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 60 51 45 42 42 42 42 42 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 62 56 53 53 53 53 53 53 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 59 56 56 56 56 56 56 26 26 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT