* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/29/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 51 52 52 49 47 44 45 42 42 39 39 36 34 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 40 35 33 37 34 32 30 30 28 27 25 26 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 39 34 36 34 31 29 29 29 30 30 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 10 15 13 27 20 21 19 24 19 32 34 39 37 43 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 10 9 7 5 3 5 0 5 0 3 -2 -3 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 191 237 266 260 246 254 249 240 240 248 245 237 231 234 215 221 209 SST (C) 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.7 30.9 30.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 153 155 153 159 161 165 157 164 159 163 168 169 170 171 171 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 153 155 152 158 157 155 143 147 140 141 145 143 155 157 150 117 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 8 10 8 10 6 9 700-500 MB RH 58 56 52 52 50 47 49 51 50 48 52 50 52 50 52 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 20 19 17 14 12 11 10 9 9 6 5 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 87 72 53 51 45 26 -7 -11 -25 -46 -10 -13 22 28 33 24 43 200 MB DIV 69 76 65 53 63 13 -5 -8 11 18 46 15 42 22 62 40 47 700-850 TADV 3 0 -5 15 24 4 9 -8 1 -4 0 0 7 0 9 0 10 LAND (KM) 236 112 49 -18 -63 -2 28 55 90 99 77 80 30 -132 -182 -209 -283 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.2 20.6 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.6 26.9 28.3 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.9 66.7 68.5 70.1 71.7 74.9 77.6 79.6 81.4 82.6 83.2 83.6 83.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 18 17 17 16 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 48 89 77 47 44 40 46 64 44 47 44 41 46 6 6 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -25. -25. -28. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 12. 12. 9. 7. 4. 5. 2. 2. -1. -1. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.1 64.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 36.0% 20.5% 12.5% 12.0% 13.0% 13.1% 16.1% Logistic: 12.1% 25.6% 21.2% 10.2% 3.5% 5.1% 3.8% 2.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 2.0% 4.4% 1.0% 0.2% 1.3% 1.9% 0.3% Consensus: 7.4% 21.2% 15.4% 7.9% 5.2% 6.5% 6.3% 6.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/29/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 40 35 33 37 34 32 30 30 28 27 25 26 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 42 37 32 30 34 31 29 27 27 25 24 22 23 24 24 12HR AGO 40 37 36 31 26 24 28 25 23 21 21 19 18 16 17 18 18 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 25 23 27 24 22 20 20 18 17 15 16 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT