* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 88 79 68 48 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 96 88 79 68 48 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 99 96 89 79 59 43 35 32 33 35 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 43 51 60 61 52 31 27 26 31 27 18 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 11 16 5 8 3 5 3 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 201 206 209 216 211 213 219 229 227 233 223 216 208 SST (C) 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.2 27.0 26.9 23.4 20.1 13.6 20.8 18.4 16.0 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 144 137 129 127 124 95 82 72 88 81 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 129 122 115 110 105 81 74 70 82 76 72 70 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -52.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -51.8 -50.6 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.0 0.2 -0.2 1.2 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 38 41 41 42 43 44 58 68 67 66 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 41 42 44 45 41 37 35 31 28 27 30 33 850 MB ENV VOR 106 124 143 136 117 75 32 75 99 141 184 230 243 200 MB DIV 71 62 60 55 69 40 69 65 69 37 45 40 48 700-850 TADV -33 -32 -30 -18 1 10 9 17 -19 -91 -66 2 -2 LAND (KM) 766 887 1025 985 891 710 512 483 457 886 1471 1111 641 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.7 33.5 34.8 36.0 38.7 41.0 42.5 43.1 44.4 46.6 49.9 54.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 66.9 65.0 63.4 61.8 59.9 58.6 56.3 50.3 42.2 33.4 25.8 19.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 18 18 17 14 12 16 26 31 31 29 27 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 11 14 8 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -16. -27. -39. -48. -55. -61. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -15. -25. -34. -45. -46. -42. -38. -34. -30. -26. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -6. -12. -17. -20. -16. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -12. -21. -32. -52. -64. -71. -81. -89. -94. -88. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.9 68.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 620.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 11( 31) 3( 33) 0( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 88 79 68 48 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 91 82 71 51 39 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 87 76 56 44 37 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 79 59 47 40 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 61 49 42 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 68 56 49 39 20 20 20 20 IN 12HR 100 96 88 79 73 69 57 50 40 21 21 21 21