* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 90 88 84 73 64 56 49 40 34 29 23 V (KT) LAND 90 91 90 88 84 73 64 56 49 40 34 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 90 93 95 96 95 86 68 51 42 38 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 34 38 40 55 47 34 24 26 32 35 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 0 0 4 12 13 2 8 3 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 205 203 211 209 203 217 207 237 211 238 223 216 219 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.6 27.0 27.0 26.2 21.7 12.4 20.0 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 149 149 147 134 126 125 117 87 69 84 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 129 130 130 118 108 105 98 78 67 77 80 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -53.0 -53.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.6 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 43 39 38 43 52 53 59 66 63 52 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 35 37 39 43 44 41 37 34 34 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 52 72 86 94 120 138 91 59 38 56 130 173 147 200 MB DIV 66 88 90 83 75 30 67 59 86 88 61 63 70 700-850 TADV -8 -21 -16 -27 -31 -16 6 24 22 -15 -84 -162 -94 LAND (KM) 548 607 677 746 831 1014 857 737 624 490 432 778 1327 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.2 31.4 31.9 32.4 34.1 36.6 38.7 40.5 42.3 43.7 44.5 44.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 71.6 70.4 69.0 67.7 64.0 61.0 59.2 57.0 54.0 49.6 43.6 36.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 15 17 15 12 13 16 20 24 27 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 36 30 31 13 9 16 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -28. -35. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -18. -29. -35. -35. -33. -30. -27. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 8. 4. -1. -2. -4. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -6. -17. -26. -34. -41. -50. -56. -61. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.9 72.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 578.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 6.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 9( 30) 4( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 91 90 88 84 73 64 56 49 40 34 29 23 18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 82 71 62 54 47 38 32 27 21 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 80 69 60 52 45 36 30 25 19 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 65 56 48 41 32 26 21 15 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 60 51 43 36 27 21 16 DIS IN 6HR 90 91 82 76 73 67 58 50 43 34 28 23 17 IN 12HR 90 91 90 81 75 71 62 54 47 38 32 27 21