* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092019 09/13/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 45 52 56 57 54 53 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 37 32 29 28 28 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 29 28 27 27 31 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 11 16 18 10 12 11 16 23 31 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 0 0 -4 0 -1 2 -3 -2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 247 253 222 229 248 212 236 206 213 206 222 231 248 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.2 29.1 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 160 160 162 165 154 151 157 153 146 140 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 135 142 142 143 144 132 127 128 125 119 115 111 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 6 8 6 8 4 700-500 MB RH 55 53 54 54 52 59 57 59 54 52 46 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 22 19 -4 8 -22 -6 -43 -13 -8 19 8 200 MB DIV 31 12 11 21 0 20 20 28 35 16 0 -10 -14 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 1 9 3 9 3 0 -4 -1 -12 LAND (KM) 373 378 376 301 217 60 -20 -33 -53 -25 39 86 81 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.6 26.1 27.1 28.2 29.5 30.2 30.7 31.1 31.6 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 74.9 75.6 76.4 77.2 78.0 79.5 80.8 81.5 81.9 81.7 81.0 80.2 79.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 3 3 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 92 82 85 73 68 68 43 38 25 39 31 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 20. 27. 31. 32. 29. 28. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.3 74.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.53 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 15.4% 10.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 2.3% 5.3% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.3% 4.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.8% 5.5% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 NINE 09/13/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 39 37 32 29 28 28 27 26 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 37 35 30 27 26 26 25 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 30 25 22 21 21 20 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT